The Central Bank has published two separate research papers on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, using real-time economic data.

The research shows that, by 3 April, job postings on job-search site Indeed were almost one-third below those in previous years.

And plastic-card spending in the first week of April declined by almost one-third, with ATM withdrawal amounts down 57% compared with the first week of March. 

The first Central Bank paper examines the effect of the pandemic on job postings, both globally and in Ireland, while the second examines the impact on retail-card usage.

Indicator

An Economic Letter, written collaboratively by Central Bank of Ireland economist Reamonn Lydon and Indeed economist Pawel Adrjan, uses data taken from Indeed to give a real-time indicator of labour-market impact, both globally and in Ireland – and the sectors that have been most affected.

The paper finds that job opportunities are falling fastest in occupations that are directly exposed to the restrictive measures to fight COVID-19, such as beauty and wellness (80% decline), and hospitality and tourism (76% decline).

Countries with a higher share of employment in these occupations – such as Ireland and Britain– have seen some of the largest declines in online job postings on Indeed.

Fallen

The authors find that job postings have generally fallen by 30% to 40% in countries with a higher proportion of employment in occupations with lower work-from-home potential.

This includes Ireland, Britain, Portugal, Spain, Canada and Australia – where the percentage of employment in lower work-from-home occupations ranges from 50% to 60%. 

In a separate Behind the Data research paper, Central Bank economists Andrew Hopkins and Martina Sherman use real-time data to examine the developments in retail card spending in the weeks after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Ireland.

Activity

Spending activity on cards initially increased by 790,000 additional transactions, or 22%, on Thursday 12 March, relative to the average of the previous 11 days, as multiple media outlets reported bulk buying following the Government announcement the same day.

The value of both card spending and ATM withdrawals declined rapidly from Monday 16 March.

By the time the stay-at-home order was announced on 27 March, the value of card spending had already declined by over one-fifth since the first week of March, while the value of ATM withdrawals was down over 40%.

Declining spending

This pattern of declining spending and cash withdrawals continued into the first week of April, with card spending down by almost one-third and ATM withdrawal amounts down 57% on the first week of March.

If the current level of spending and ATM withdrawals were to continue for the remainder of April 2020, it is estimated that overall card spending and cash withdrawals would be €2.6 billion (or 40%) lower when compared with April 2019.