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Burglars and public-order convicts likely to reoffend

Re-offending rates within one year of release from prison have fallen from 48% in 2018 to 45% in 2019, according to CSO figures.

Individuals released from custodial sentences in 2019 that related to burglary (60%) or public order (57%) offences were the most likely to re-offend within a year of release, while those released from offences related to homicide (13%) were least likely to re-offend within a year, the data shows.

More than six in ten (62%) of individuals released from custody in 2016 re-offended within three years, with 78% of these committing their first re-offence within a year of release.

Tendency to re-offend

Younger adults released from custodial sentences continue to have a much stronger tendency to re-offend, with 83% of under 21s linked to re-offending incidents within three years of release compared with 30% of those over 50.

Although males (92%) made up the majority of prison releases in 2016, females (70%) remain more likely to re-offend than males (62%) within the three years following their release. 

Statistician Felix Coleman said that re-offending rates have fallen over time whether one looks at three-year or one-year windows for re-offending following release from custody.

Just under 45% of those released in 2019 re-offended within one year of release, compared with just over 54% of individuals released in 2011 who re-offended within one year of release.

The one-year estimate of custodial re-offending for 2019 also shows a drop of three percentage points when compared with the same measure for re-offending for 2018 (just under 48%).