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Probation-order reoffending rate goes up

Over one-quarter (27%) of offenders who received a probation order in 2020 re-offended within a year, CSO data shows.

This is a rise of two percentage points  when compared with the equivalent rate for 2019 (25%).

Over one-third (37%) of adult males aged under 25 who received probation orders in 2020 re-offended within a year of receiving probation.

In comparison, one-quarter (25%) of young adult females re-offended during the same period.

Assault

There were increases between 2019 and 2020 in the re-offending rate of people serving probation for offences related to:

• Assault (five percentage points),
• Controlled drug (four points), and
• Road and traffic (four points) related offences.

Regionally, the highest level of re-offending (31%) involved probationers from Cork and Kerry.

In the Dublin region, where the highest number of probationers lived (1,058 of 3,478), 27% of probationers re-offended within a year.

The highest number of probation orders were issued in 2020 to people who committed offences related to controlled drug offences (605 of 3,478).

Just over one-fifth (23%) of these people were convicted of a re-offence within a year of receiving their probation.

Just under two-thirds (65%) of the re-offending by people who received a probation order in 2020 took place in just three of the 16 offence categories:

• Public order (28%),
• Controlled drug (21%), and
• Theft (16%).

During a longer period (three years) after receiving a probation order in 2018, almost half (45%) of people committed at least one offence for which they received a conviction.

This was two percentage points down on 2017 (47%) and six percentage points less than 2008 levels, when the three-year re-offending rate was more than half (55%).

Crime statistician Felix Coleman said that Probation Service data indicated that there were, on average, significantly fewer probation orders (-35%) issued in 2020 when compared with studies from previous years, due to pandemic measures.

Increase in re-offending

Overall, probation re-offending estimates indicated a slight increase in re-offending by probationers between those that received a probation order between 2019 and 2020, although the one-year re-offending rate for 2020 (27%) was the second-lowest re-offending rate measured since 2008, when the first estimates of probation re-offending were calculated.

The year-on-year increase in re-offending between 2019 and 2020 was mostly due to a rise in the re-offending of people who received probation for offences relating to controlled drug (23%) or road traffic (22%) related offences.